Pascale's Wager

Everyone makes choices based on assessments of risk and reward. I accept that every choice I make is essentially a gamble with my life. How do we learn to make good decisions?

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Google is Clairvoyant

Now this is entertaining.

So I'm having another email exchange with Mr. West Point Yalie. And it's pretty much all poker, all the time. We're planning to get together and talk strategy. But because I'm away from home (in loco parentis for some friends who are traveling ~ and that's a whole 'nother story in itself), I'm reading this exchange on the Gmail website rather than the Mail application on my desktop computer.

So what ads does Google offer up, based on the contents of these emails?

1. The Math Secret to Forex
2. Game Theory Consultants
3. Build Your Own Empire (world simulation software)
4. Make a Living Trading FX (Should I be looking into this Forex stuff, or what?)

and the kicker...



5. How Romantic Are You?

zOMG LOL1!!!1!


Update: As the conversation has progressed, still STRICTLY poker and time/place logistics talk, the odd-man-out ad (the rest are all computer or strategy related) is now for an Irish Claddagh Love Ring. I'm telling you, this is gold: you can't make this stuff up. Google, you crack me up!

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Thursday, September 20, 2007

Swoon Redux

Mr. Forearms got back together with his ex-girlfriend, taking one option off the table for me, so to speak. A pity, that, but I try to console myself by iterating all the very many ways he was oh-so-unsuitable. (Count the poker puns, people!).

So I've fallen back on Inappropriate Crush Number 2. Shall I describe him to you? I thought you'd never ask!

Another young man. (Of course. I'm nothing if not predictable in these matters.) A former Army officer, graduate of (I believe) West Point, and then Yale School of Management. Now a commercial real estate developer. A solid poker player; I much prefer to have him seated to my right, where I can adjust to his manoeuvres.

When I first met him, probably a year ago at a free pub poker game, he was so quiet it was uncanny. He's unbent significantly since then. I wouldn't describe him as chatty while playing now, but he will talk, crack a joke, from time to time. He has a devastating smile when he does get around to it. He wears a cap as anti-tell gear, and leaks very little information of any kind at the table.

What's novel here is that he, too, is not classic 'my type' material. He's not an ectomorph, he's not primarily a nerd or intellectual, he's doesn't wear wire-frame glasses. (Apparently, over time, my requirements are loosening up. This can only be a good thing.) There's no doubt he's smart as hell, but he's not into putting his intelligence on overt display (except in the game). He's a tad shorter than I am ~ like 47% of all men ~ and wide. I use the term "wide" advisedly. He is not fat. He is not husky. He is not stocky. He is broad and dense. (He lifts weights. A lot, apparently.) This gives a kind of permanence to his presence that is unnerving. He seems immovable. Patting him on the shoulder is like patting a granite boulder. It's a downright odd sensation.

He is half Irish and half Italian. Blue eyes and not much, if any, hair (I think that's either a shaved head or a buzz cut under the cap.) Mostly he looks Irish, but the nose, in profile, has an Italian swerve in it. The worst thing I know about him so far: he likes to jet ski. (I hate those noisy machines.) The best thing about him, so far: his shuffle; it is so smooth, subtle, and elegant that one naturally wonders what else those hands might do exquisitely well.

It has long been established that there is a girlfriend. He used to be responding to phone messages all the time during games, or stepping outside to return a call. Recently, not so much. We have never learned the girlfriend's name, or what she does for a living.

Here's the thing. At a poker table, all you do is observe people. (And try to influence them, but that's part B.) So, painful as it's been (sheeya), I've observed this guy a lot. And something has changed lately. We've always been friendly, but email and SMS traffic has spiked up noticeably. We mutter entertaining comments to each other when seated side by side in a game. I don't know how else to put it, except to say that the whole vibe has shifted.

Or I'm delusional. Or both.

You know what, leave me my little fantasies, would ya? I know this is ridiculous. I do. This man is never going to be romantically inclined toward me. He likes me. We'll probably be poker buddies, maybe even real friends eventually. And I will pine, hopefully not indefinitely, like the unattached middle-aged woman with age-inappropriate tendencies that I am.

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The 10K Challenge: 2

A week later, and I'm down by a third. Slogging away with pretty bad results. Just goes to show that this is A LOT harder than it looks.

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Thursday, September 13, 2007

Bankroll Management: the 10K Challenge

Call it bad luck. Call it stupidity and crappy play. Call it poor bankroll management. Call me Fishmeal. (God, I crack me up.)

Whatever the cause, about ten days ago I managed to reduce my once plush Full Tilt Pro bankroll to $1.59. OUCH. And also: bummer.

Since that dark day, I have been diligently seeking to rebuild. I am following the strict bankroll mangement guidelines established by Chis Ferguson in his 10K challenge.

These are the key points:

  1. Never buy into a cash game or a Sit & Go with more than 5 percent of total bankroll (there is an exception for the lowest limits: any game with a buy-in of $2.50 or less).

  2. Never buy into a multi-table tournament for more than 2 percent of total bankroll (there is an exception for those that cost $1).

  3. If at any time during a No-Limit or Pot-Limit cash-game session the money on the table represents more than 10 percent of total bankroll, leave the game when the blinds come around.


I'm concentrating on tourneys because, as has been definitively established, I currently SUCK at cash games.

So, for the foreseeable future I will be playing $1 and $2 tournaments. I am finding heads up very profitable, but the lion's share of my current bankroll came from two 90-person multi-table tournament wins.

I have been following these rules (which is hard). My FTP bankroll now stands at... $61.80. It took Chris Ferguson 7 months, starting at zero (okay, I had a little leg up), to get to a stable $6.50, so I think I'm doing okay. After 16 months, he had $10K. Can I duplicate his results? I doubt it. (He is one of the best in the world and I'm... well... NOT.) But it ought to be fun trying.

I will share my progress and/or setbacks here.

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Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Holy Amazing Technology, Batman!

It's been awhile since I was wowed by a new concept in software. Then I saw THIS.

One can only hope it will be used more for good than for evil.

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